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 Best Forex Indicators for MT4 & MT5 with Free Download ...

Best Forex Indicators for MT4 & MT5 with Free Download ...

Forextory: Tick data 99%

Forextory is the cheapest tool to help you download Forex historical data since 2004 with 99% modelling quality for traders to backtest trading strategies.
[link]

r/CryptoMarkets

FOREX community for cryptocurrencies. Tags: mt gox bitcoin, long term potential, open source exchange, low inflation rate, demand and price, technical analysis, fundamentals, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Augur, token, volume, oscillator, RSI, stochastic, trend, sentiment, strategy, scam, coin, coinmarketcap, altcoin, Peercoin, script, blockchain, PoW, PoS, Proof of Work,
[link]

r/CryptoMarkets testing subreddit.

[link]

99.9% of "online courses" are worthless. If you know how to make money in real estate, or trading forex, you do it, you don't give up your edge by teaching others how to do it

Lots of people think these courses are useful. They aren't. Most of them are hype, just trying to get you to buy more nonsense as opposed to actually teaching you something useful. If I know how to make millions selling real estate, I'm going to sell real estate. Yet I'm not going to teach seminars at $2 thousand per person. Even if I did , that would raise my competition. How come I would do that?
submitted by howevertheory98968 to unpopularopinion [link] [comments]

TF SELL $ETHUSD=X at 225.99 : 226.75 22% Shp 1.52 S 7.25 N 1.15 RSI 48.02% SRSI 0% ADXR 24.47 #forex #market #trading #global

TF SELL $ETHUSD=X at 225.99 : 226.75 22% Shp 1.52 S 7.25 N 1.15 RSI 48.02% SRSI 0% ADXR 24.47 #forex #market #trading #global submitted by TradeFlags to tradeflags [link] [comments]

Forex Price Action Scalping Strategy 99% Winning Rate

Forex Price Action Scalping Strategy 99% Winning Rate submitted by mehboob109109 to u/mehboob109109 [link] [comments]

How to trade the forex with 99% win Rate for begginners and novice

How to trade the forex with 99% win Rate for begginners and novice submitted by andrewthesage to u/andrewthesage [link] [comments]

Weekly Forex & Currency Update #7 (March 20, 2020): Forex Reserves in SBP - $11.99 Billion (-5.44%); USD/PKR - 165.50 (+4.19%)

Update #1
Update #2
Update #3
Update #4
Update #5
Update #6
The percentage changes in the title are compared to last week.
Foreign Exchange Reserve Size Source
Archive isn't working for me for some reason today, so no archive.
USD/PKR Exchange Rate Source

Size of the Forex Reserves of Pakistan since Feb. 21

Date Foreign Exchange Reserves in the SBP Week-on-Week Percentage Change (In SBP) Month-on-Month Percentage Change(In SBP)* Total Foreign Exchange Reserves Week-on-Week Percentage Change (Total) Month-on-Month Percentage Change (Total)*
February 21, 2020 $12.5915 Billion +0.69% +5.68% $18.7428 Billion -0.02% +2.07%
February 28, 2020 $12.7575 Billion +1.32% +3.94% $18.8690 Billion +0.67% +1.20%
March 06, 2020 $12.7899 Billion +0.25% +2.89% $18.9046 Billion +0.19% +0.90%
March 13, 2020 $12.6796 Billion -0.86% +1.40% $18.7430 Billion -0.85% -0.02%
March 20, 2020 $11.9892 Billion -5.44% -4.78% $18.1051 Billion -3.40% -3.40%
*A month refers to four weeks, as the data is released on a weekly basis.

USD/PKR Mid-Market Exchange Rate since Feb. 21

Date* USD to PKR Exchange Rate Week-on-Week Percentage Change Month-on-Month Percentage Change**
February 21, 2020 154.18339 +0.0074% -0.182%
February 28, 2020 154.22391 +0.0263% -0.1557%
March 06, 2020 154.22585 +0.0013% -0.1243%
March 13, 2020 159.19722 +3.2234% +3.2595%
March 20, 2020 158.85140 -0.2172% +3.0276%
March 27, 2020 165.50442 +4.1882% +7.3144%
*Measurements taken at 10:00 UTC (3:00 P.M. in Pakistan)
**A month refers to four weeks to keep consistent with the last chart
submitted by AAA786786 to pakistan [link] [comments]

Forex trading System with 99% win rate with more entries that win for be...

Forex trading System with 99% win rate with more entries that win for be... submitted by andrewthesage to u/andrewthesage [link] [comments]

How to trade Forex and win 99% for begginners and Novice

How to trade Forex and win 99% for begginners and Novice submitted by andrewthesage to u/andrewthesage [link] [comments]

How to trade forex and win 99% of the time as a begginner or Novice

How to trade forex and win 99% of the time as a begginner or Novice submitted by andrewthesage to u/andrewthesage [link] [comments]

Forexearlywarning 5.5 hour Forex Trading Video, Only $11.99

Forexearlywarning 5.5 hour Forex Trading Video, Only $11.99
Forexearlywarning has a video that describes our complete trading system, with 90 minutes on trade entries. This video teaches individual currency concepts, parallel and inverse analysis, and multiple time frame analysis of trends. We discuss what a trend is, how trends form, what trend indicators to use, and how to enter trades into new and established trends, along with money management. We also discuss using the Forex Heatmap® to enter trending or non-trending pairs for short term or long term trade entries. The video includes 90 minutes on trade entries, including rules for trade entry, alerts and signals systems, heatmap percentages, best times to trade, entry criteria, selecting the best pair to trade, market conditions, role of the time frames.
Purchase the video here:
https://www.forexearlywarning.com/blog/2013/09/10/forex-training-video/

https://preview.redd.it/mmbywz4orfu41.jpg?width=754&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ae9bd80285cb1c80f8cbd854ac9c0ec609966e47
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Sustainable? No. But tired of hearing all of the negative forex 'gurus' putting out the same ol' fear of god "99% of traders fail" advice. Someone tell me how something like this happens?

Sustainable? No. But tired of hearing all of the negative forex 'gurus' putting out the same ol' fear of god submitted by kcmike to Forex [link] [comments]

Forexearlywarning 5.5 hour Forex Trading Video, Only $11.99

Forexearlywarning 5.5 hour Forex Trading Video, Only $11.99
Forexearlywarning has a video that describes our complete trading system, with 90 minutes on trade entries. This video teaches individual currency concepts, parallel and inverse analysis, and multiple time frame analysis of trends. We discuss what a trend is, how trends form, what trend indicators to use, and how to enter trades into new and established trends, along with money management. We also discuss using the Forex Heatmap® to enter trending or non-trending pairs for short term or long term trade entries. The video includes 90 minutes on trade entries, including rules for trade entry, alerts and signals systems, heatmap percentages, best times to trade, entry criteria, selecting the best pair to trade, market conditions, role of the time frames.
Purchase the video here:
https://sellfy.com/p/Bk8Q/


https://preview.redd.it/ar11huhpi8c41.jpg?width=754&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca23f3f56dec8c64b58215ecfbf0cf56feb67d39
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Kuvera Global is a pyramid scheme (scam)! 99% of distributors lose money. FOREX is high risk and not for casually putting in your University loan money

EDIT: Kuvera Global is not to be confused with Kuvera, the Indian mutual fund investing company
I can’t believe ppl are buying into this scam. It sickens me that university ppl who know nothing about trading and managing money are targeting innocent students (probably mainly international and first year students). They claim to be experts after 6months, but just sound like sales people roping you into another pyramid scheme. I asked one of their head persons a basic question regarding the impact of the Forex market on Trump’s tariffs which was big news, and they fumbled and couldn’t give me an answer. When I told them this sounds like a pyramid, they proceeded to tell me that I’m uneducated and I will be another loser working a 9-5 job. They even started making personal jabs at me. To speak on Kuvera, it has a complex compensation plan that results in money going back to the mentors. Their product is extremely overpriced at $220/month. You can use Intuit Turbo Tax for like $20 a year and find better videos on how to trade on YouTube. This just incentivizes people to recruit and make money off of signing people up bc that is the only way to make money (Pyramid scheme). Also the distributors on Instagram are posting these results of them making $100+ overnight or while they’re watching the basketball game. They are promoting this lifestyle of flashy cars, fancy hotels, money and 6 figure salaries at age 20 is everything and telling everyone else not in the program they are a chump working 9-5 and missing out.
They don’t promote how risky FOREX, cryptocurrency and buying equities can be. You can end up at square one and lose tons of cash overnight as well. Stop losses only protect you for one trade, but once you keep putting money in and trying to win, you will end up losing eventually and you may not have enough cash to get back in the game. On top of that you are paying this $220 fee. So you are already starting at a loss. FOREX is no joke. Hedge funds and other investment banks filed for bankruptcy when the Swiss Franc took away it’s cap limit over the Euro in 2015. Foreign exchange trading results in major risks such as counterparty risk, market liquidity risk, leverage risks, etc. Kuvera telling us that you can make money through your phone with little risks and by working a few hours a week whenever you feel like it when Wall Street bankers are working 60-80 hours per week? That seems fishy. Also, what baffles me is this giant disclaimer they use. They say that they are not registered financial advisors, but they are teaching us how where to put our hard earned money? Seems contradictory to me.
Furthermore, you have to report all your gains/losses when you file your taxes, otherwise you are committing a federal crime. I hope they are issuing T5s and teaching their followers how they can file this on their tax return. Speaking of taxes, they also mentioned that you will save more in taxes by becoming self-employed so you can have more deductions. WOW. They are legit scamming you to sign up, become a self-employed Kuvera distributor and you will save money on taxes. However, this just means Kuvera does not have to pay CPP, EI, withholding taxes, and can avoid any other liabilities of hiring employees (wrongful dismissal, severance, you name it). This is a classic pyramid scheme resulting in earlier backers making tons of money off of suckers, and using tactics to make it appear legit. Oh and the whole Kuvera being traded publicly and that means it’s legit thing, that does not mean they are legit! They were formerly called WealthGenerators which, if you check on Google, was a major scam selling stocks illegally. They just changed their name to Kuvera. Investview purchased them and the annual audits (required by the SEC) just determine whether the financials are presented fairly, not whether they are coming from a legitimate source. I think it’s the FDC that determines a legitimate company. They will come crashing down soon and if not, well, 99% of people who join MLMs (fancy name for pyramid schemes) lose money. This is a legit joke and I can’t believe this is going on at YorkU.
General rules: when you see:
IT IS MOST LIKELY A PYRAMID SCHEME. Yes, most MLMs are disguised as pyramid schemes as it is insanely easy to appear like you are a legitimate company.
Don’t join these schemes. Please pass this on to 3 more people and encouraging them to do the same.
submitted by VealCutlets95 to u/VealCutlets95 [link] [comments]

Forexearlywarning 5.5 hour Forex Trading Video, Only $11.99

Forexearlywarning 5.5 hour Forex Trading Video, Only $11.99
Forexearlywarning has a video that describes our complete trading system, with 90 minutes on trade entries. This video teaches individual currency concepts, parallel and inverse analysis, and multiple time frame analysis of trends. We discuss what a trend is, how trends form, what trend indicators to use, and how to enter trades into new and established trends, along with money management. We also discuss using the Forex Heatmap® to enter trending or non-trending pairs for short term or long term trade entries. The video includes 90 minutes on trade entries, including rules for trade entry, alerts and signals systems, heatmap percentages, best times to trade, entry criteria, selecting the best pair to trade, market conditions, role of the time frames.
Purchase the video here
https://sellfy.com/p/Bk8Q/


https://preview.redd.it/ogiuwm22z4x31.jpg?width=754&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e4a183f3da2ec7d9b20e2c2a5e0727bf57cb194d
submitted by forexalerts to u/forexalerts [link] [comments]

Do y’all think paying 99$ a month to learn forex trading is a rip off?

submitted by vincent4180 to Forex [link] [comments]

Intro for New Traders

This is designed to be a brief intro into trading. If there's interest in a more detailed "course", perhaps I'll work on that.
Trading isn't difficult. If someone asks how I do it, the simple answer is "buy low, sell high". As a new trader, you don't have the experience nor the tools to understand that cliche, but hopefully with the links I provide and this subreddit, you can start your journey into trading.
Everyone has their idea of what trading is and what trading isn't. Fact is that there's no one way to trade. As you learn the types of trading and different strategies, you'll want to focus on what best matches your personality.
The first thing I would suggest doing as a new trader is to read the book Trading in the Zone. While some of the examples or details may not make sense at the moment, focus in on what Mark Douglas says about self sabotage. Keep the book in the back of your mind as you're going about your learning. If you're unable to find the book, Brett has some good articles. His site is outdated, but the articles on trading psychology are still relevant. There are a ton there, but I'd suggest "The Lesson on Trading Psych" and "Approaching Trading with an Empty Mind". I have yet to read all of them so perhaps there's a gem in there I missed.
Trading Psych is 90% of the game. After you've mastered definitions and basic strategies, trading psych is what you'll be working on for the rest of your trading career.
BabyPips has the best trading "school" i've seen. It's free and it's easy to understand. While the site itself is made for forex, 99% of the information in the school translated into stocks. Spend a week or so reading through this site.
After that, you're pretty much ready to start papertrading. (Papertrading is trading with fake money). Most forex broker's offer free demo account. If you want to trade forex, that will be fine. If you want to trade stocks, I'm not aware of any "free" papertrading accounts. However, I know Interactive Brokers and ThinkorSwim provide papertrading accounts once you sign up.
Regardless of whatever market you decide to trade, stick with it. If you change markets after thing get difficult, you'll never learn from your mistakes. If you're doing forex, don't jump around from currency to currency unless your timeframe is on the longer side (1hr+). Even then, limit yourself to 5 pairs or so. Same with stocks, unless you're on a longer timeframe, give yourself time to learn the stock and the way things move.
Be prepared to papertrade for months or years before things seem to "click". You WILL get frustrated. You WILL lose. Don't make excuses.
Go ahead and quit, it's easy.
submitted by the_rabbithole to TodaysMarket [link] [comments]

Prepaid Mastercard 'STACK' - no fees, 0% forex, will cover <$10.99/mo subscription fee for Netflix, Spotify, or TIDAL for 12 mo (~$130 net + 0% forex) with $50 minimum load

Prepaid Mastercard 'STACK' - no fees, 0% forex, will cover <$10.99/mo subscription fee for Netflix, Spotify, or TIDAL for 12 mo (~$130 net + 0% forex) with $50 minimum load submitted by theleverage to churningcanada [link] [comments]

Forex Renko Strategy - Almost 99.99% No loss. For any info or help Whatsapp on +19194463358

Forex Renko Strategy - Almost 99.99% No loss. For any info or help Whatsapp on +19194463358 submitted by crossposting to u/crossposting [link] [comments]

SUPER EXCITED that my BOOK LAUNCH will be happening in the next few weeks! So many have been asking me: - how to get STARTED in Forex - how to be SUCCESSFUL in trading forex - WHY is it that so many fail to create results?! You'll be glad to know that 99.9% of my students have NEVER blown their acc

SUPER EXCITED that my BOOK LAUNCH will be happening in the next few weeks! So many have been asking me: - how to get STARTED in Forex - how to be SUCCESSFUL in trading forex - WHY is it that so many fail to create results?! You'll be glad to know that 99.9% of my students have NEVER blown their acc submitted by Janetisla0 to u/Janetisla0 [link] [comments]

#GoldenCross $BTCUSD=X at 12224.50 R112 HiLo 99% DIV N/A #BTC/USD #forex #market #trading #global

#GoldenCross $BTCUSD=X at 12224.50 R112 HiLo 99% DIV N/A #BTC/USD #forex #market #trading #global submitted by TradeFlags to tradeflags [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

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Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
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[Business] - India's forex reserves up by $1.99 billion to $419.99 billion | Times of India

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[Business] - India's forex reserves up by $1.99 billion to $419.99 billion

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